How Well Can the VRAG-R Predict Violent Recidivism in Young Offenders?

What you need to know

• The VRAG-R risk assessment tool can predict violent recidivism in young offenders with good accuracy, similar to its use with adult offenders.
• Some VRAG-R items may need to be adjusted to be more relevant for younger offenders.
• Current ADHD symptoms provide small but significant additional predictive value for general recidivism beyond the VRAG-R.

Background

Assessing the risk of violent recidivism is crucial in the criminal justice system, both for public safety and offender rehabilitation. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) is a tool widely used to assess this risk in adult offenders. However, its effectiveness for younger offenders has been unclear. Additionally, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is common among young offenders and may influence recidivism risk. This study aimed to evaluate how well the VRAG-R predicts violent recidivism in young offenders and whether ADHD symptoms provide additional predictive value.

The study

Researchers examined 106 male young offenders (average age 18.3 years) in Germany. They assessed the offenders’ risk of recidivism using the VRAG-R and evaluated ADHD symptoms. The researchers then followed the offenders for an average of 13 years to see who committed new violent offenses.

Results

The VRAG-R showed good accuracy in predicting violent recidivism among the young offenders. Its performance was similar to what previous studies have found with adult offenders. This suggests the VRAG-R can be a useful tool for assessing recidivism risk in younger populations.

However, not all items on the VRAG-R were equally effective for young offenders. Some items, like marital status, were less relevant due to the offenders’ young age. Other items, like living with both biological parents, were more strongly associated with recidivism in this younger group compared to adult offenders.

Current ADHD symptoms provided a small but statistically significant improvement in predicting general recidivism (any new offense) beyond what the VRAG-R alone could predict. However, ADHD symptoms did not improve prediction of specifically violent recidivism.

Implications for risk assessment

This study supports using the VRAG-R to assess violent recidivism risk in young offenders. However, some adjustments may improve its effectiveness:

1. Age categories: The current categories may need adjustment for younger populations.

2. Relationship status: For young offenders, close peer relationships may be more relevant than marital status.

3. Criminal history: Since young offenders have had less time to accumulate a criminal record, considering other rule violations might better capture antisocial tendencies.

4. Antisocial personality traits: While formal diagnosis of antisocial personality disorder isn’t possible for those under 18, related traits were still predictive of recidivism.

ADHD and recidivism risk

The finding that current ADHD symptoms improve prediction of general recidivism highlights the importance of considering this disorder in young offenders. ADHD is treatable, and addressing these symptoms could potentially reduce recidivism risk.

Some ways ADHD might increase recidivism risk include:

1. Impulsivity: Acting without thinking through consequences.
2. Inattention: Missing important details or instructions, including those related to probation requirements.
3. Hyperactivity: Restlessness or difficulty sitting still could lead to behavior problems.
4. Executive function deficits: Struggles with planning, organization, and self-control.

Limitations and future research

This study had a relatively small sample size of high-risk offenders, so the results may not apply to all young offenders. Future research with larger, more diverse samples would be valuable.

The researchers also suggest exploring how different subtypes of ADHD might relate to recidivism risk. Not all individuals with ADHD have the same symptom profile, and these differences could be important for risk assessment and intervention planning.

Conclusions

• The VRAG-R can effectively predict violent recidivism in young offenders, but some items may need adjustment for this age group.
• Current ADHD symptoms provide additional predictive value for general recidivism risk.
• Considering and addressing ADHD in young offenders could be an important part of recidivism prevention efforts.